Thursday, March 17, 2011

When is it going to be appropriate to get back to business?

Question:


I realize things are bad, but at some point a semblance of normality must resume. As I understand it NPB will start the season on the 25th, albeit with Sendai playing out of Kobe. Therefore I guess that is a good time to get back to business in earnest. It is just a little sensitive for me as I am in the building products industry so I don't want to come off as opportunistic, but obviously this is a time when engineered wood products will be in demand. I went through Kobe, Aum, Tokai incident, etc. in Japan-but this is obviously one step beyond any of those crises.

Answer:


Apart from the urgent aid to the refugees, the current economic crisis is caused by the shortage of electric power in Kanto area, the greater Tokyo.

The rebooting of the recessed thermal power plants for the periodical inspection is rapidly going and it would meet the regular demand by the end of April, but the semi-tropic Japanese summer wastes the much more power for the air conditioners, so the planned black-out is expected from June or July.

So I estimate the business would be resuscitated from Autumn, if we are lucky enough to avoid the Chernobylistic catastrophe in Fukushima, which means the facilitation of no-man's land on the logistic artery and disintegration of Tohoku region.

It is all up to the containment of nuclear crisis at minimum and locally.

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